Dangerous fire weather conditions Tuesday, storms possible Frida

Dangerous fire weather conditions Tuesday, storms possible Friday

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LUBBOCK, Texas -

TODAY: It's been breezy and warm, with mid 80s across our area and humidity down to 5% to 15%. A red flag warning continues until 9 this evening for the high wildfire risk. When a red flag warning is issued it means outdoor burning is illegal.

TONIGHT: Breezy and mild, low near 56. Wind SW 15-25mph. 

low temp forecast

TUESDAY: A dangerous combination of hot, dry and windy weather means the wildfire risk will be very high. The worst conditions are in pink on the map below:

fire weather outlook

The SW wind will be sustained 25-35mph, gusting over 50mph. High near 92. Humidity will drop to around 5%. Please be careful with anything that could produce a spark or just some heat near tall grass. That can be all it takes to start a dangerous or deadly wildfire.

high temp forecast

MID-WEEK: A front will knock the high back into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday. We get a break from the wind Wednesday afternoon. Thursday the wind returns, but from a more favorable direction. A SE wind will bring a lot more humidity to the area.

STORM CHANCE: There's a slight chance for a few storms Thursday night. The chance is better west of Lubbock.

Then on Friday the next upper-level storm system will approach from the west. It'll be positioned farther south, which is more favorable for humidity to return and for us to get storms. It's still too early to know if the moisture will mix east of Lubbock by Friday afternoon. But the computer guidance has been pretty promising past few days. 

If things play out as the computers advertise, we'll see some storms develop Friday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of our region with the potential for these storms to turn severe Friday, shown in yellow below:

severe weather outlook

It'll be fairly cool, limiting instability. But there will be a lot of shear, to help organize these storms.

WEEKEND: A lingering shower or storm is possible early Saturday morning. Both days will be cooler.

7-day forecast

Have a great rest of your day. Bobby will have the next full update to the forecast here early tomorrow morning.
-Matt

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