The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again

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SOURCE The Conference Board

Solid Economic Growth to Continue into Early 2018

NEW YORK, Dec. 21, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in November to 130.9 (2010 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.

"The U.S. LEI rose again in November, suggesting that solid economic growth will continue into the first half of 2018," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "In recent months, unemployment insurance claims have returned to pre-hurricane levels. In addition, improving financial indicators, new orders in manufacturing and historically high consumer sentiment have propelled the U.S. LEI even higher."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in November to 116.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in October, and a 0.1 percent increase in September.   

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in November to 125.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in October and a 0.1 percent decline in September.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

NOTE: Next month's release will incorporate annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2017


6-month


Sep


Oct


Nov


May to Nov



















Leading Index

128.8

r

130.4


130.9

p



  Percent Change

0.1


1.2


0.4

p

3.0


  Diffusion

60.0


100.0


65.0


90.0











Coincident Index

115.8


116.2


116.5

p



  Percent Change

0.1


0.3


0.3

p

1.0


  Diffusion

87.5


100.0


100.0


100.0











Lagging Index

125.1

r

125.5


125.6

p



  Percent Change

-0.1

r

0.3

r

0.1

p

1.0


  Diffusion

64.3


71.4


50.0


42.9











p  Preliminary     r  Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board








 

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